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New Yorkers will discover the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a race that will determine who governs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has threatened to send military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The election has become an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by double-digits across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with Americans' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the party arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, should the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' current model of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an force of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent elected, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has encountered difficulties in recent days, after footage emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd